Friday, October 31, 2008

Statement game deferred, Sharks crush a weary Red Wings squad 4-2

San Jose Sharks Jody Shelley
#45 JODY SHELLEY TRIES TO PLAY THE PUCK OUT OF A PILEUP
San Jose Sharks goaltender Evgeni Nabokov
SAN JOSE GOALTENDER #20 EVGENI NABOKOV STOPPED 25 OF 27 SHOTS
Detroit Red Wings right wing Marian Hossa
DETROIT RIGHT WING #81 MARIAN HOSSA - 1G, 4SOG, 2PIM

Notes from the San Jose Sharks 4-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings will be posted soon. A photo gallery from the game is available here. Youtube video highlights from the game are available here.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Forbes releases annual NHL franchise valuations Wednesday, how valuable are the valuations?

Forbes NHL Valuations revenue estimates
FORBES 4-YR PACIFIC DIVISION REVENUE ESTIMATES - JAMES MIRTLE

Forbes National Editor Michael K. Ozanian and Sr. Statistics Editor Kurt Badenhausen released the annual NHL Franchise Valuation report yesterday. Forbes ranks the Sharks 19th out of 30 NHL teams, with a franchise valued at $179 million. Forbes estimates the Sharks increased revenue 9% over last season to $85 million.

In his Morning Buzz column for the Mercury News, John Ryan notes that the Forbes $2.4 million estimate for Sharks revenue in 2007-08 differs with what Sharks President and CEO Greg Jamison told beat reporter David Pollak earlier this month. Jamison told Pollak that the Sharks lost $2-3 million last season. Ryan also noted a Sharks statement that the figures were put together without any cooperation from the NHL, something that differs with the Forbes MLB valuations which saw all but 2 teams contribute information (operative quote "to some degree").

James Mirtle states in a caveat to his 4-year analysis of Forbes revenue estimates, that the figures in the graph above for the Pacific Division are net of revenue sharing. Mirtle also says in an email that concrete numbers are impossible to come up with. Facts matter. The National Hockey League and the NHL Players Union burned an entire season due to the numbers, and the memory is still fresh in the minds of many fans.

There are fundamental principles at play that are not up for debate, everything must even out on the books. Determining a team's concrete revenue figure and developing an accurate franchise valuation involves navigating a maze of complex revenue sharing agreements, determining hockey-related and non-hockey related revenue, franchise value appreciation vs depreciation and amortization, travel/affiliate costs, and any number of local or business factors that Forbes could not accurately represent without involvement from individual NHL organizations.

The Sharks have reportedly told the Mercury News that they were not contacted by Forbes. They confirmed that to this blog. Washington owner Ted Leonsis said Forbes was wrong in 2006, noting that the Capitals were going to lose money that season instead of running a $4.6 million operating profit as noted in the Forbes valuation report. The Los Angeles Kings were apparently upset enough by the estimates to let money manger and Kings fan Philip Propper evaluate the books in 2003. A pdf file of his report was linked on the sidebar of this blog for several years. The Kings claimed to lose $105 million since AEG bought the team in 1995, and were on pace to lose $10 million in 2002-03 according to Ralph Frammolino of the LA Times. Propper found a serious discrepancy between the Kings financial claims and the Forbes estimate of a $7 million operating profit for the franchise in 2001-02.

So, how accurate are the figures developed by Michael K. Ozanian and Kurt Badenhausen? How complete is the information Forbes used for each team? An email and a phone call to Michael K. Ozanian for this post was not returned. Prior to the lockout three competing financial assessments released by Forbes, the Levitt Report, and Moag and Company painted three disparate pictures of league finances.

With no publicly available alternative, and no transparency from individual leagues or the NHL, the Forbes numbers are accepted by most at face value. Teams allege that releasing comprehensive financial information could significantly impact their business negatively, and they have a point. Evaluating the Forbes estimates can also be instructive up to a point. Ozanian writes that the NHL's biggest problem is the financial health of the Phoenix Coyotes franchise, who at $68 million according to Forbes has the second lowest revenue for 2007-08. The Coyotes are ranked 30th out of 30 NHL teams with the lowest franchise valuation in the NHL at $142 million. Other than a sale price of $193 million and an enterprise value (equity plus net debt) of $174 million, nothing about the Nashville Predators is mentioned. Lynn Zinser of the New York Times reports the Predators have jumped from last place to 23rd in one year, but she notes that Forbes also recently included Nashville on a list of top 10 sports franchises most likely to move.

Forbes estimates a league wide revenue increase of 13% for a $92 million per team average, and an operating income average (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) that rose 48% to $4.7 million per team. O.C. Register beat reporter Dan Wood reports the Anaheim Ducks are ranked 16th with a franchise valued at $202 million, and revenues equalling $90 million. Rich Hammond of the LA Daily News reports that the Kings are ranked 12th, with a franchise valuation of $209 million. Hammond also notes that a reported operating income of $1.2 million is far higher than the Kings claims of losing millions each season.

So, how accurate are the Forbes numbers and what do they mean for the NHL and the San Jose Sharks? Your guess is as good as mine, and apparently, as good as that of Forbes.

[Update] In addition to the league valuation, Forbes also published an article by Peter J. Schwartz on the best fighters for the buck. Sharks enforcer Jody Shelley finished 14th. Schwartz writes that Shelley's salary is 13% below other UFA qualifying enforcers, but that the number of fights he has won declined in each of the past 4 seasons. This year, Shelley is undefeated (2-0-1) according to the readers of hockeyfights.com. Schwartz took a fighters experience into account, their salary and win totals, and noted that only 15 active players dropped the gloves 20 times or more and played in half their team's games over the last two seasons.

Michael Ozanian also runs a Sports Money blog at Forbes covering the sports financial beat. Kurt Badenhausen is the author of the annual "most miserable city" index, which raised considerable controversy when Detroit and Stockton were ranked first and second overall in 2008. Forbes popular annual ranking of business schools (based on rankings, reputation and resources) caused a near revolt in some academic circles they were so despised. Yahoo's Greg Wyshynski notes Forbes dependance on ticket sales in revenue determinations, that 18 teams had an operating income of less than $2 million, and how a stronger Canadian currency has had a significant impact on revenue growth for Canadian NHL franchises. Jim Kelley of Sportsnet is skeptical of the Forbes valuations, but uses the data to point to the impact of the Carolina Hurricanes missing league-mandated revenue targets to qualify for revenue sharing. The Hurricanes have the lowest operating income in the NHL at -$11.5 million.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Tight checking performance by San Jose results in a 2-1 win over Pittsburgh, Penguins held to a record low 11 shots on goal

Pittsbrugh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin San Jose Sharks NHL hockey photo
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS CENTER #71 EVGENI MALKIN DRIVES THE ZONE
Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby
#87 SIDNEY CROSBY REGISTERS 0 SHOTS, PENGUINS A RECORD LOW 11
Pittsbrugh Penguins San Jose Sharks Jody Shelley Eric Godard hockey fight
#45 JODY SHELLEY VS #28 ERIC GODARD IN THE 1ST, KO SHELLEY

The Sharks earned a 2-1 win over Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and the Pittsburgh Penguins Tuesday night at HP Pavilion. A photo gallery from the game is available here. Youtube video highlights are available here.

A new post published on TheHockeyNews.com Sharks blog:

The San Jose Sharks vs Pittsburgh Penguins contest on Tuesday night was expected by many to be a heavyweight affair full of offensive fireworks. 2005-06 Art Ross winning Joe Thornton (29 goals, 96 assists) vs 2006-07 Art Ross winning Sidney Crosby (36 goals, 84 assists). Calder Memorial Trophy winning Evgeni Malkin vs 2-time Allstar and Sharks captain Patrick Marleau. Defending Eastern Conference champions vs a perennial Pacific Division powerhouse. Like many boxing pay-per-views, the result was one-sided. The Sharks as a cohesive unit delivered a solid 60-minute team performance, the top San Jose line of Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Devin Setoguchi delivered a command performance on both sides of the ice, and a listless and frustrated Pittsburgh team left Northern California with a franchise record low 11 shots on goal.

Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau delivered a shot across the bow to the rest of the NHL. Both are in midseason form skating and creating scoring chances, but early this season both are playing with a mean streak not seen in recent campaigns. With Patrick Marleau it was evident in the preseason. At times he seemed impatient with opposing forwards, content to skate through them to get to the puck. Matched up against the top Dupuis-Crosby-Malkin line for the first two periods Tuesday night, Thornton had a nasty edge to his game on offense and defense, seldom letting Pittsburgh skate the puck out of the neutral zone. It set the tone for the game.

The Sharks opened the scoring on a Pittsburgh Penguins power play, the 5th Sharks shorthanded goal of the season. Evgeni Malkin fell at the Pittsburgh blueline as center Joe Pavelski challenged young Pittsburgh defenseman Alex Goligoski for possession. Pavelski reversed direction, and Milan Michalek picked it off his stick and drove directly to the front of the net ahead of 3 backchecking Penguins. Dany Sabourin made the initial save on Michalek, but as all 3 Penguins peeled off Joe Pavelski punched home the loose puck in the open net for the first goal of the game. "Milan tracked the puck from side to side, it shows his great speed" Pavelski said.

The Sharks began to clamp down on Pittsburgh in the second. After goaltender Evgeni Nabokov flashed the glove on a slapshot from Pascal Dupuis early in the period, the Penguins appeared stuck in neutral trying to move the puck up ice. Individual efforts and perimeter play kept Pittsburgh for the most part out of the danger areas in front of the net. Eric Godard, who lost a first period fight with Jody Shelley at center ice, could not goad Sharks defenseman Douglas Murray or left wing Ryane Clowe into taking penalties. The Sharks defense simplifyed their game, and San Jose's third and fourth lines worked the puck deep and battled for possession to minimize secondary scoring opportunities for Pittsburgh. "Crosby and Malkin score 60% of their points or goals, if you shut those two down you will a pretty good chance at success" Sharks head coach Todd McLellan said after the game.

But Tuesday night was the Marleau and Thornton show. The talent and effort gap between Thornton-Crosby and Marleau-Malkin appeared enormous on this night. It brings up the question of Western Conference teams running the gauntlet of Detroit, Dallas, Anaheim and San Jose every year before having to face the best the Eastern Conference has to offer. Patrick Marleau and Devin Setoguchi were explosive changing direction and chasing down plays on defense. Last season that was a hallmark of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg in their visit to HP Pavilion. Thornton planted his 235-pound frame between the stick and the body of an opposing forward in the neutral zone, sending the stick flying and leaving the puck free for him to break the play up ice.

A rare start by 6-foot-4, 200-pound backup goaltender Dany Sabourin kept Pittsburgh's head above water. Sabourin held his ground in net against the Sharks power play, and robbed Dan Boyle who had the puck teed up for him 15 feet out near the end of the second. The Sharks broke through again 4-on-4 in the third. Patrick Marleau drove down the middle with speed as 4 Penguins converged on him. Marleau kicked the puck out to Dan Boyle, who moved it to Ehrhoff on the left point. A quick pass by Ehrhoff slid the puck to Mike Grier on his backhand, with Patrick Marleau set up in front of Sabourin. Grier flicked a backhand into the far side of the net with 3 bodies creating traffic for Sabourin in front. Sabourin finished with 32 saves on 34 shots.

The Pittsburgh Penguins disrupted Evgeni Nabokov's bid for his first shutout game of the season 14:27 into the third period. Evgeni Malkin drove down the right wing and tried to feed Ruslan Fedotenko. Fedotenko dug the puck out of the corner and passed to Malkin behind the net. Quick pass to Croby at the side of the net, who regained his feet after being checked to the ice by Pavelski. Crosby spun and found Fedotenko in front before Marc-Edouard Vlasic could close in on him. An unchecked Fedotenko hammered a point blank shot off the post passed Nabokov to make the score 2-1 San Jose. Pittsburgh pressured to tie the game, but a late high sticking penalty on agitator Matt Cooke forced them to pull their goalie to make it 5-on-5. A casual dump-in attempt by Malkin as he made a line change missed Crosby on the right wing. Sharks defenseman Christian Ehrhoff and Dan Boyle combined to run out the clock. Evgeni Nabokov finished with 10 saves on 11 shots, earning his 6th win of the season.

[Update] San Jose assistant focuses on Pens never coached - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

A forecast of wintry conditions at his old stomping grounds was of little concern Tuesday to San Jose assistant coach Todd Richards. He was focused on the many Penguins' first-round picks he never had a chance to coach over the past two seasons with AHL affiliate Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

Richards, who guided the AHL Penguins to a conference and Calder Cup final over his two seasons as head coach, joined the staff of new San Jose coach Todd McLellan over the summer. "It was being out on your own; there's a lot that really went into it," Richards said of his tenure with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

[Update2] Offense falls flat again; Penguins manage 11 shots in loss - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

[Update3] Injuries put Crosby, Pens on defensive - Ross McKeon for Yahoo Sports.

“We’re missing some pretty skilled guys, and guys we look to on the power play,” captain Sidney Crosby said. “We’ve probably simplified things a little bit, which is never a bad thing. Everyone has to pay attention to detail. We make safe plays because we don’t want to give teams opportunities if we don’t have to.”

The Penguins aren’t looking for sympathy. They know they won’t find it from 28 teams that sat around and watched them play in the Stanley Cup Finals last spring. And you won’t hear Therrien whining, at least not yet. “We’ve got to protect our defense,” he said. “Our transition game isn’t quite what I wish. We know eventually we will get better. It’s not a concern right now. We’re still able to get points – big points in the standings – that’s why I’m still optimistic.”

[Update4] Interesting note from Mike and Doug Tuesday night, several members of the San Jose Earthquakes (coming off the finish of their first MLS season) attended the Pittsburgh game. Mike and Doug's latest DOH podcast is available here. Their latest ChompTalk weekend radio show with Chetan Chaudhary is available for download here. They also point to this amusing game recap from the Pensblog, which appears to have developed an irrational dislike for Jonathan Cheechoo. If you have a computer and an internet connection, you should be listening to NHL Live 9-11AM (PT) with Don LaGreca and E.J. Hradek here (under the LiveWire channel). E.J. had Sharks center Joe Thornton on the show as a guest yesterday, and said that he has not bought all of the hype over San Jose in past seasons but he believes this year might be their year. John McGourty of NHL.com is on now.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Pittsburgh Penguins preparing for monster East vs West matchup tonight in San Jose

Pittsbrugh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin morning skate in San Jose
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS CENTER #71 EVGENI MALKIN TUESDAY IN SJ

The Pittsburgh Penguins (5-2-2, 2nd Atlantic) are preparing for a rare visit to San Jose (7-2-0, 1st Pacific) tonight riding a 4-game point streak. The Penguins bring the fourth best defense (20GA) and fourth best penalty kill (85.4%) in the Eastern Conference to face a potent San Jose offense that has piled up 18 goals in their last 4 games. The Sharks have set an early pace for the most balanced scoring production in the team's 16-season history, and are a perfect 4-0 at HP Pavilion this season. The Penguins have been solid on the road with a 2-0-1 record at Ottawa, at Boston, and at New York (Rangers). The Sharks are 11-10-3-0 alltime vs Pittsburgh, 9-1-1-0 in the last 11 games.

During the Pittsburgh morning skate the Penguins worked on getting the puck out of the corner, deflecting shots on net, and faceoffs. The hardest working sports blog online, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Seth Rorabaugh's Empty Netters blog, previews the Sharks here. Rorabaugh notes that backup goaltender Dany Sabourin is expected to start tonight in San Jose. In the morning skate, Sabourin was working on body and glove position prior to a shot. It is an underrated aspect of the game. Martin Brodeur, Nikolai Khabibulin and Marty Turco are three examples of goalies I have seen firsthand constantly maximizing the surface area of their pads facing a shooter. Seth Rorabaugh also notes that this is the first time in NHL history that a team has faced Stanley Cup Finalists in consecutive games.

Acccording to the official game notes, Evgeni Malkin (2G-9A) and Sidney Crosby (3G-7A) are both on five game point streaks. Patrick Marleau and Devin Setoguchi lead the Sharks in scoring with 5 goals each. Left wing Ryane Clowe (3G, 2A) and defenseman Christian Ehrhoff (1G, 4A) lead the Sharks in power play scoring with 5 points each.

The last time this blog covered the Pittburgh Penguins in February 2004, the day started at 5:45AM on the top of Pillar Point in Half Moon Bay for the Mavericks Big Wave surfing competition. The final heats and awards ceremony finished late in the afternoon, but a quick trip up 92 and 280 allowed for an arrival at HP Pavilion just prior to the 7:30PM drop of the puck against Pittsburgh. The Sharks defeated goaltender Andy Chiodo and the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2 on goals by Brad Stuart, Patrick Marleau, Tom Preissing, and Alexander Korolyuk. The waves at Mavericks break a half mile out to sea, on that day they were in the 20-30 foot range. The waves were biggest at 6AM, 2 hours before the first heat. A set of 3-4 forty foot waves broke right over a hole in the reef resulting in a loud rumbling boom. When locals say it is "booming" at Mavericks, it is literally booming.

[Update] Penguins' Talbot is not splitting hairs; he wants to lead - Shelly Anderson for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

It's apparently some type of gift, the ability to dramatically change your look with a haircut, a shave or forgoing one or the other for a few days. "It's so different every time," Penguins center Max Talbot said. "People talk about it, but it's not that big a deal."

It was important enough that, after going with a short-cropped hairstyle and clean-shaven look to start the season, Talbot decided to invite back an old friend when the points weren't coming. He grew a Fu Manchu mustache last week and immediately scored a goal Thursday in a 4-1 victory against Carolina.

[Update2] In a game day blog post, beat writer David Pollak notes that rookie Jamie McGinn will make his first start tonight. Marcel Goc is on the shelf after suffering a brutal blindside hit by 6-foot-5, 254 pound right wing Evgeny Artyukhin in Saturday's 3-0 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. On the shift after his first period goal, Goc split a pair of defenseman before being hammered by an onrushing Artyukhin. Pollak notes that Jeremy Roenick could take Goc's place between Ryane Clowe and Mike Grier, with McGinn taking centering duties on the fourth line between Shelley and Plihal.

The San Jose Sharks got top billing on the San Jose Mercury News sports page today, above a feature article and photo of last night's World Series rainout, above the 2008-09 Mercury News NBA season preview, ahead of anything Mike Singletary/Al Davis related that probably could fill a front page daily. Mark Purdy writes that a week of Sharks hockey against Pittsburgh and Detroit is a boon for Bay Area professional sports, a chance for Bay Area fans to see 3 of the top 5 NHL teams in one week. Mark Emmons leads with the somewhat embarassing fac